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ExpectedImprovement returns NaN for zero predictive variance at the improvement threshold #621
On master af8b928, ExpectedImprovement.base_acq computes a/std unconditionally. At std=0 and mean=y_max+xi it returns NaN, although a deterministic predictive distribution has expected improvement max(mean-y_max-xi,0). Other zero-variance points also emit divide-by-zero warnings.
Reproduced in Python 3.12 / NumPy 2.5.3 / sklearn 1.9.1. The older #516 reported the warning without a complete reproduction and was closed pending information; the current API and an actual GP reproduction are shown here. No open overlapping PR found.
Proposed fix: avoid division by zero and use the deterministic positive-part expectation at zero variance, preserving the formula for positive std, broadcasting and scalar calls. Add a focused mixed-variance regression checked against a numerical Gaussian expectation and a real zero-variance GP control. ProbabilityOfImprovement's threshold/tie convention is outside this issue.
AI assistance: Codex autonomously reproduced this report and is preparing the contribution; no independent human review has occurred.
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